# Weekly Treasury Market (Predict) > **Status: operating.** The Predict desk and its House Vault were deployed > to mainnet on 2026-09-18. The first series opened the same week, closed > on schedule, and was graded on 2026-09-21: the line was $21.75M, the > print was $21.29M, and LOWER paid one dollar a token. The second series > opened on Monday 2026-09-21 with a line of $25.00M and closes on the > contract's clock at 04:00 UTC on Saturday 2026-09-26. Contract addresses > are repeated in the Addresses section of this page. **Participation is > restricted to persons 18 years of age or older.** Every figure on this > page is a deployed parameter or a fact of record, never a forecast. Predict is a one-week market on one number: will the NetNet Treasury plus the RWA Sleeve be higher than a posted line at the print? Each Monday the team Safe posts the line. There are two tokens, HIGHER and LOWER. Both open at 50 cents, the two prices always add up to one dollar, and each winning token pays exactly one dollar. All week anyone can buy either side and sell it back. The price moves with the book: the side people pile into gets dearer and its fee rises, the other side gets cheaper and its fee falls, and if the book leans too far only the light side stays open to buys until it comes back. Trading stops on Friday night. The number keeps ticking over the weekend with nobody able to trade it, and on Sunday night the team Safe grades the market. The house is a USDG vault anyone can deposit into. It backs the whole book, shares every fee and every loss pro rata, and every payout is covered by USDG already in the contract. Predict is a market on the app site, the **Predict** tab of Shareholder Services at `app.netnet.capital`, beside [NetNet Credit](/credit). It is not one of the PLAY cabinets. The tab speaks plain English and links here. This page is the controlling description of the mechanics. ## The number The number is `Treasury.rfv()`, the fund's reserve value, plus the RWA Sleeve's mark, quoted on the board in millions of dollars to the cent: $19.00 means $19,000,000. The Sleeve is shown beside the Treasury on the tab and is never called reserves or backing anywhere in the fund's materials. The Sleeve mark is everything the Sleeve owns, net of what it owes: Stock Token balances at their Rialto quotes, USDG on hand, its NetNet Credit deposit, its Uniswap v3 liquidity positions including uncollected fees, its TURBO desk house pots and fee bucket, less USDG owed to NetNet Credit. NET held for Real World Bond inventory is not counted, and the Sleeve's own House Vault deposit is counted at the amount deposited at the open, fixed for the week. A published script computes the mark from the same Sleeve report the `/reports` page uses and prints every line, so anyone can reproduce a posted value. ## A trade, from your seat 1. **Read the question.** The tab shows it large: "Higher than $25.00M by Sunday?" with today's number under it, split into Treasury and Sleeve, and the two prices in cents. 2. **Pick HIGHER or LOWER** and enter the USDG to spend, all in. The ticket shows the tokens you receive, the average price of the fill, the fee at the current skew, "pays $N if you are right", and which side is open. 3. **Buy.** The desk mints your tokens against the vault's backing. They are plain ERC-20s and stay in your wallet. 4. **Sell back any time before the close** at the curve's price, or hold to the print. Sells are never refused. 5. **Wait for the print** on Sunday night and the grade that follows. 6. **Redeem.** A winning token pays one dollar of USDG. A losing token pays nothing. Unredeemed winning tokens stay reserved and never expire. ## Pricing: a dealer, not a pool The book is a dealer. It mints tokens against the vault's backing and prices them off its own imbalance. Let `q` be HIGHER outstanding minus LOWER outstanding in dollars, and let `backing` be the vault's funding for the week plus a virtual liquidity buffer of 10% of it, both fixed at the open: ``` a = 0.60 × backing p(q) = (1 + q / sqrt(a² + q²)) / 2 the HIGHER price, 0 to 1 C(q) = q / 2 + (sqrt(a² + q²) − a) / 2 the cost of moving the book to q buy d HIGHER from q costs C(q + d) − C(q) sell d HIGHER at q pays C(q) − C(q − d) ``` LOWER is the same curve on the mirrored book, since `1 − p(q) = p(−q)`. Every fill is the exact integral of the curve, and rounding always shaves the trader's side. Because the backing does not move with the trade being priced, what a buy paid is exactly what a sell gets back before fees, whatever happened in between: **a round trip, on one side or across both, can never profit.** A bigger vault absorbs bigger tickets with less movement. With a $500,000 vault, a $25,000 ticket moves the price about seven cents. The price moves only when people trade. No function on the desk moves it. ## The fee Every swap, in and out, pays a fee that depends on what it does to the book. Let `ratio` be the book's imbalance divided by the backing: | A trade that | Pays | |---|---| | adds to the skew | 3% rising in a straight line to 6% at the skew cap | | reduces the skew | 3% falling in a straight line to 1.5% at the skew cap | Every fee, whatever its level, splits exactly in half. One half goes to the vault's bucket for the series. The other half buys NET on the fund's canonical exchange pool inside the same transaction, paying NET's own 5% trading fee like every buyer, and the NET goes to the RWA Sleeve. The desk never holds NET. If the NET leg fails, the trade still completes and that USDG joins the next swap's buy. The Sleeve holds the NET it receives and recycles it into Real World Bonds as desk inventory. The fee is charged at the point of swap. Nothing is refunded on a loss and nothing further is charged on a win. ## The skew cap: one side only The cap applies to buys. A buy is accepted if it reduces the skew, or if it leaves the imbalance at or under **35% of the backing**. Past that line the heavy side is closed to new buys and only the light side can be bought, at the low fee, until the book comes back. A buy large enough to flip the book answers to the same cap on the other side. Sells are never capped, on either side, at any time trading is open. The ticket shows which side is open and why. **Last call.** For the final two hours before the close, only skew-reducing buys are accepted, so nobody can lean on the book just before it locks. Sells stay open to the close. What the cap does and does not do, stated once. A yes or no market pays all or nothing, so a crowd that leans hard and is right costs the vault real money. With the book at the cap on a $500,000 vault, about $126,000 of one-way buying, a win for that side costs the vault about 14% of its value that week, before fees. The cap is what keeps that number from being larger; an ordinary week is a few percent either way. Because sells are never capped, one side leaving in bulk can carry the skew past the cap. ## The clock All times UTC. The contract's clock, not a call. | Moment | When | What happens | |---|---|---| | Open | Monday from 14:00, or any weekday at least six hours before the close | The team Safe posts the line. The vault funds the book. Both sides open at 50 cents. | | Trading | Open to Saturday 04:00 | Buy and sell either side. | | Last call | Saturday 02:00 to 04:00 | Only skew-reducing buys. Sells stay open. | | Close | Saturday 04:00 | Friday midnight Eastern in daylight time. No trade at or after it. | | Reveal | Saturday to Sunday | The number ticks live. No trading. Tokens remain transferable. | | Print | Monday 00:00 | Sunday night Eastern. The number at this moment. | | Grade | After the print | The team Safe posts the print. HIGHER pays one dollar if the print is strictly above the line; otherwise LOWER pays. A print exactly on the line is not higher. | | Void | 72 hours after the print, if ungraded | **Anyone** may void. Every token settles at the book's own price after its last trade, so one HIGHER plus one LOWER still redeem for exactly one dollar. | A series opened late in the week still closes that Saturday and prints that Monday; a Thursday open is a one-day market. The first series was one: it opened on Friday 2026-09-18, closed on Saturday 2026-09-19, and printed on Monday 2026-09-21. **Guards on the open.** The line must be between 75% and 150% of today's number, today's number must be at least 90% of the Treasury view, the vault must hold at least $50,000, the previous series must be graded or voided and six hours must have passed since then. Once open, nobody can move the line or the price except by trading. There is no re-seed and no owner function on pricing. **Guards on the grade.** The contract bounds the print against a fat finger: never below half the line, never below 90% of the live Treasury view, and never above double the larger of the line and the Treasury view. An honest print is always gradeable however far the treasury moved in the week; a wrong one reverts. ## The House Vault The vault is the house. It is public, USDG in and a share of the vault out, one share class, pro rata, and the fund deposits on the same terms with no first loss and no preference. Shares are balances inside the vault, not a transferable token. The vault keeps its own books and never prices off its token balance, so USDG sent to it directly cannot move the share price. **Deposits queue for the next series.** Deposit at any time. The USDG waits in a pending bucket that backs nothing, earns nothing and loses nothing. At the next turn, the moment between a print and the following open, it converts to shares at the share price struck at that print, and from the following open it backs the book. A pending deposit can be cancelled and refunded in full at any moment before it converts. **Withdrawals take one full series to clear.** Give notice on any number of shares at any time. The shares keep backing the book, earning and losing with everyone else, and are paid at the print of the next series to open after the notice. Notice given during the turn is paid about seven days later; notice given mid-week is paid at the end of the following week. At that print the USDG is set aside at the struck share price, and you claim it whenever you like. A notice can be cancelled until it is paid. So at every open the vault knows exactly what is backing the book and exactly what leaves at its print, and nobody can join after a good Friday or leave ahead of a bad one. **The turn, in order.** The grade reserves winners' redemptions first, returns the rest of the book to the vault together with the vault's half of the week's fees less the closest-guess prize, and strikes the series share price. Matured withdrawals are set aside at that price. Pending deposits convert at that price. The next open moves all active USDG to the desk. Before the first series, deposits converted at $1.00. **Of record.** The vault funded the first series with 50,000 USDG, and the share price struck at that print was 1.041261 USDG per initial dollar of shares: the vault's result for one week, and not a forecast of any other. The second series was funded with 57,286.93 USDG. ## The closest guess One guess per wallet per series, a whole-dollar value of the number, placed before the close, once the wallet has paid $3 in fees that week. The highest guess that does not exceed the print wins; ties go to the earlier guess. After the grade anyone may propose a winner, a better eligible guess replaces the standing one, and after 24 hours the standing winner is paid **10% of the vault's half of the week's fees**. If every guess is over the print, the prize rolls into the next week. ## Rules that protect you * **Team wallets do not trade the board.** The team Safe, the Sleeve and the fund's keeper are rejected at buy, permanently. The fund participates only as a depositor in the vault, on everyone's terms. * **Solvency is checked after every state change against the real balance.** USDG held must cover the larger side's tokens at one dollar each plus fees owed. A trade that would break that reverts. Every winner is paid from USDG already in the contract. * **The grade is only a number**, bounded as above; the contract decides which side wins. * **Void is permissionless** 72 hours after the print. Nothing can strand. * **A halt rejects buys only.** Sells, grade, redeem, void and every vault function can never be halted. * **Winners first.** Vault settlement never reduces USDG reserved for unredeemed winning tokens, and those reservations never expire. * **One share price per series for every holder.** A deposit never backs the series in progress when it was made; no withdrawal is paid before the print of the next series to open after its notice; pending deposits are always refundable in full; USDG set aside for matured withdrawals and pending deposits is never moved to the desk. ## Parameters | | | |---|---| | Question | Will the Treasury plus the Sleeve be higher than the line at the print | | Tokens | HIGHER and LOWER, one ERC-20 each per series; a winning token pays $1.00 | | Opening price | 50 cents a side | | Curve steepness | 0.60 of the backing | | Virtual liquidity | 10% of the vault's funding, fixed at the open | | Fee | 3% base; 3% to 6% adding skew; 3% to 1.5% reducing it; half to the vault, half buys NET for the RWA Sleeve | | Skew cap | 35% of the backing; applies to buys only | | Last call | Two hours before the close, skew-reducing buys only | | Schedule | Open Monday 14:00 UTC; close Saturday 04:00 UTC; print Monday 00:00 UTC | | A print exactly on the line | LOWER wins | | Minimum ticket | $1 on chain, $5 on the tab | | Minimum vault to open | $50,000 | | Turn | At least six hours between a grade and the next open | | Void | 72 hours after the print, by anyone; settles at the last mark | | Prize | 10% of the vault's half of fees; $3 of fees paid to be eligible; 24-hour challenge window | | Grader | The team Safe | ## Risks Beyond the fund-level [Risk Factors](/risks): * **A token can pay nothing.** HIGHER or LOWER settles at zero on the wrong side of the line, and a print exactly on the line is not higher. * **The vault can lose principal.** A week where the crowd leans hard one way and is right costs the vault about a seventh of its value at the cap, shared pro rata by every depositor including the fund. Vault deposits are not Treasury backed, are not counted in NAV, and are not reachable by any fund reserve. * **Stock prices move the number.** A week where the Sleeve's Stock Tokens move hard can carry the print across the line in either direction, and the Sunday print marks them at live Rialto quotes, weekend haircut included. * **Anyone can push the number.** Anyone can pay USDG into the Treasury, and with a yes or no payout the last dollars across the line decide the whole book. The defences are the two days between the last trade and the print, during which the distance to the line keeps moving, and the skew cap, which bounds what one side can win. What anyone pays to close a gap goes to the Treasury. * **Withdrawals are slow by design.** Notice takes one full series to clear, and your shares keep earning and losing until it does. * **The fee is paid on every swap**, in and out, win or lose. * **Grading depends on the team Safe** posting the print. The void path is the only remedy for a missing grade and it settles at the last mark, not at the print. * **Smart contract risk.** The desk, the tokens and the vault are the fund's code and can have a defect. * Past prints are not a forecast. This is a bet, not a hedge. ## Addresses All on Robinhood Chain (chain id 4663). Every link goes to the chain's canonical explorer. | Contract | Address | |---|---| | PredictDesk (the weekly book) | [`0x7EF9528408D99f98056922291048F0710001e015`](https://robinhoodchain.blockscout.com/address/0x7EF9528408D99f98056922291048F0710001e015) | | PredictVault (the House Vault) | [`0xb488368902b1CbD7533F1536C3F860065398D3e9`](https://robinhoodchain.blockscout.com/address/0xb488368902b1CbD7533F1536C3F860065398D3e9) | | Treasury, the `rfv()` the number reads | [`0x04822Ea321A0DEE6F40656172F29312104855d66`](https://robinhoodchain.blockscout.com/address/0x04822Ea321A0DEE6F40656172F29312104855d66) | | NetNet RWA Sleeve, recipient of the NET half of every fee | [`0x498752D5fa0600CBd613074C151Abe15B3FeC7CB`](https://robinhoodchain.blockscout.com/address/0x498752D5fa0600CBd613074C151Abe15B3FeC7CB) | | Team multisig (Safe), owner and grader | [`0x3Bb7A23316f82C0e984fA2E784846d8928a35f42`](https://robinhoodchain.blockscout.com/address/0x3Bb7A23316f82C0e984fA2E784846d8928a35f42) | Each series deploys its own HIGHER and LOWER token contracts; the tab shows the current pair and the desk's `series(id)` view returns them for any past series. The fund's other contracts are listed on [Official Channels](/official-channels). Not investment advice. 18+.